000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE LINE 3N78W 4N92W 5N99W 
6N108W 6.5N114W 6N118W 4N133W 3N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 4.6N99.8W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE 
FROM 25N105W TO 15N140W AND SOUTH OF A LINE 32N120W TO 25N140W.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND IS MOVING EAST 
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  A PLUME OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS 450 NM SE OF THE 
TROUGH AND IS ADVECTING OVER MEXICO NORTH OF 20N. OTHERWISE THE 
TROUGH AREA AND THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROUGH ARE CLOUD FREE IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 

REMAINDER OF AREA IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS A WEAK RIDGE 
AND EXCEPT FOR SOME LIMITED AREAS OF CONVECTION IS ALSO CLOUD 
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 

SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W.  REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD TROUGH.

GAP WINDS...
GAP WINDS CONTINUE IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA...PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA 
WITH WINDS OF UP TO 30 KT IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND 25 IN THE 
PANAMA AREA. THE PAPAGAYO WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT 
THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN 48 HOURS.  THE PANAMA WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 36 HOURS. ALSO GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
RETURN TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 48 HOURS.

$$
LL