000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201007
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG 3N78W 3N93W 5N101W 5N109W 
8N120W 3N137W 3N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 
90W AND 102W. 

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENTERED NW CORNER OF BASIN 
BRINGING SOME DRY AIR MASS INTO E PAC.  SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL N OF AREA TO 
32N113W TO 20N140W.  STRONG JET CORE OF 170 KT STREAM ON SE SIDE 
OF TROUGH ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO S BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
NW MEXICO...THEN CONTINUES INTO TEXAS.  DOWNSTREAM BROAD RIDGE 
CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA COVER REMAINDER BASIN E OF 110W WELL 
INTO CARIBBEAN SEA. 

AT THE SURFACE...
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM 1033 MB HIGH AT 32N148W WEAKENS 
DIMINISHING ITS ATTENDANT STRONG TRADE WINDS W OF 120W...BUT 
LINGERING SWELLS WILL REMAIN THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT AND SHOULD BE 
LESS THAN 20 WITHIN NEXT 6 HRS.  LIKEWISE AS TRADES ACROSS WRN 
CARIBBEAN SUBSIDE...SO DO GULFS OF FONSECA AND PANAMA DIMINISH 
TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS.  GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD 
DECREASE TO 20 KT WITHIN 48 HRS.  LINGERING SWELLS WILL TRAVEL W 
AS THEY DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT. 

$$
WALLY BARNES