000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192210
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG LINE 3N77W 3N105W 5N115W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF 5.5N113.9W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
NARROW POSITIVELY TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WRN ARIZONA SWWD THROUGH 30N120W 
24N130W 21N140W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS OCCURRING 
WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS W OF 128W. THIS TROUGH WAS 
PART OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH COVERED THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 
118W. A LARGE ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL E 
PACIFIC NEAR 14N99W DOMINATED THE AREA E OF 118W. AXIS OF 
SUBTROPICAL JTST EXTENDED FROM 17N140W ENEWD THROUGH 24N125W
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA/NW MEXICO TO THE SRN PLAINS/TEXAS. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 120-145 KT. 
JET WAS ADVECTING SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD OVER THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC AND NRN MEXICO.    

SURFACE...
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 33N147W SEWD ACROSS 
THE AREA DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 105W. SFC TROUGH WAS
APPROACHING THE NW COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  

MODERATE 20-25 KT TRADES ARE IN THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND 
SOUTH OF 25N W OF ABOUT 125W.

GAP WINDS...
THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HOWEVER INITIALIZED NWP MODELS SUGGEST WINDS ARE BELOW GALE 
FORCE AND ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12-18 HOURS. 

THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING DID REVEAL GALE FORCE WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DROP BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AND REMAIN 20 
KT OR SO THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE SAME PASS INDICATED 20 KT WINDS 
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA...HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

$$
COBB