000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG LINE 3N77W 3N105W 5N115W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
POINT 5.8N113.3W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NORTH OF LINE FROM THE 
SOUTH SEA OF CORTEZ TO 16N140W WITH AN AXIS ALONG LINE 32N122W 
TO 26N130W TO 24N140W.  A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING 
THROUGH THE TROUGH NEAR THE UPPER MEXICAN COAST AND SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND OVER NORTHWEST 
MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A WEAK BAND OF UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF 
THE TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THIN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS 
MARK THIS MOISTURE AREA.  OTHERWISE THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 
LOWER LEVELS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY WEAK RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS. TWO AREAS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE 
WITHIN THE RIDGE.  THESE AREAS ARE DUE TO CONVECTION 
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER LEVELS.  ONE AREA IS SOUTH 
OF 8.5N FROM 86W TO 100W AND THE OTHER AREA IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ 
TO 11N FROM 115W TO 130W.  REMAINDER OF THE RIDGE AREA IS CLEAR 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 10N WEST OF 120W.  TROUGH IS OVER THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS 
A BROAD TROUGH.

MODERATE TRADES ARE IN THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND SOUTH OF 
25N W OF ABOUT 125W.

GAP GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA WILL RAPIDLY 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 24 HOURS.

GAP GALE FORCE WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH 24 HOURS THAN SLOWLY DECREASE FURTHER.

GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 
20 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

$$
LL