000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG EQ80W 2N100W 7N122W 3N135W 
2N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 3N99W 3N103W AND 
3N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 111W AND 121W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 5N132W AND 6N136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS LOCATED ALONG 120W 
TONIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF ROTATION 
WITH THE SHORTWAVE NEAR 32N119W MOVING E 20 KT. MID LEVEL 
TROUGHING EXTENDS BACK WSW FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO 2N140W. A 
STRONG NLY MID LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W 
WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER W OF THE AREA NEAR 30N147W. ON THE 
SURFACE TONIGHT STORM FORCE WINDS TO 50 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC AND GALE CONDITIONS EXIST W OF NICARAGUA AND EL 
SALVADOR. BOTH CONDITIONS CAUSED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO AND WRN CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH IS MOVING E AND THESE WIND 
CONDITIONS SHOULD EASE UP LATER TODAY. A MODERATELY STRONG 
PACIFIC RIDGE CENTERED NW OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NE 
TRADES TO 25 KT W OF 125W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE SW TO 
W 10 TO 15 KT.

LATER DAY 1 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD 
BRUSHING THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 114W. OTHER MID LEVEL 
FEATURES REMAIN THE SAME. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR 
WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC BUT CONTINUE STRONG NELY 
THROUGH PAPAGUA AND W OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR. WINDS S OF 
PANAMA WILL ALSO BE GUSTY TO 20 TO 25 KT FROM THE N AND NE. 
WINDS ALONG THE UPPER BAJA COAST WILL INCREASE TO NWLY 15 TO 20 
KT. NE TRADES W OF 125W WILL REMAIN THE SAME.

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES CUTOFF FROM IT'S 
SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND MOVES SE TO NW MEXICO. W OF THE TROUGH 
THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY WITH THE COLD AIR REMAINING 
N OF THE REGION. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS 
AND NE TRADES 20 TO 25 KT ARE CONFINED TO A SMALLER AREA BETWEEN 
6N AND 20N W OF 120W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WEAKEN TO NWLY 
10 TO 15 KT. TEHUANTEPEC WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND W OF 
NICARAGUA EL SALVADOR WINDS DECREASE TO 20 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WEAKENS AND MOVES E. WINDS S OF PANAMA 
SHOULD BE NELY 15 TO 20 KT.

$$
RRG