000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172204 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT FEB 17 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N80W 5N110W 1N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 96W... AND WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 111W...AND BETWEEN 127W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER AIR... BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE AREA IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AS AN UPSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE AREA SWINGS BY TO THE N AND BEAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. THIS HAS ALLOWED AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A MEAN CENTER NEAR 26N124W TO MOVE NNEWD AT 10 KT. CIRCULATION HAS LEFT A BROAD TROUGH IN ITS WAKE OVER THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 120W. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW EXISTS E OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST TO THE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A LARGE DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N78W DOMINATED THE CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 110W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT COVERED THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER THE AREA S OF 10N E OF 95W. STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NOTED ABOVE AND THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE WAS ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EWD OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF. SURFACE... A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BUT WAS WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY IN THE FACE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 110W. GAP WINDS... 1218 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED GALES CONTINUE WITH 40 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. IN ADDITION THE SAME PASS DEPICTED 20+ KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE THIS EVENING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH GALES RETURNING WITHIN 12 HOURS...THEN WINDS RAMP UP TO STORM FORCE...50-55 KT BY 24 HOURS AND RESULTING IN THE ELEVENTH STORM FORCE WIND EVENT OF THE 2006-2007 SEASON. IN ADDITION THE NEXT COLD SURGE WILL SPREAD FAR TO THE SOUTH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN 36 HOURS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE THERE BY 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA POSSIBLY PEAKING AT 20-25 KT BY 48 HOURS. $$ COBB