000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170419
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG ALONG 1N79W 3N95W 5N110W 3N125W 2N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 
98W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 6N121W. 

...DISCUSSION...

BLOCKING PATTERN UNDERWAY OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 
A MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 36N125W AND A 
WELL DEFINED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N128W. THE UPPER LOW 
WAS AT THE TAIL END OF A SHEARED UPPER TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED
THROUGH 32N95W 32N115W TO THE UPPER LOW ITSELF. MODERATE TO 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 115W...AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM OF 
THE ANTICYCLONE. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS
WRAPPING AROUND THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...GENERALLY OVER THE 
AREA S OF 18N W OF 120W. 
 
DEVELOPING MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N94W IS AN 
EXTENSION OF A MUCH LARGER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N67W. VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS 
INDICATED WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONE GENERALLY S OF 20N E OF 110W. 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...MOSTLY ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION 
NEAR 5N118W...IS ADVECTED NE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER 
RIDGE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 20N113W 25N100W THEN 
NARROWS IN AN AREA OF STRONG CONFLUENCE AS IT CONTINUES ENE 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND N FL BEFORE MERGING WITH 
ANOTHER PLUME OVER THE NW ATLC.   

GAP WINDS...
THUS FAR NO QUIKSCAT DATA WAS AVAILABLE THIS EVENING TO 
DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF THE CURRENT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT. HOWEVER
SFC OBSERVATIONS FROM SALINA CRUZ SUGGEST WINDS HAVE DROPPED 
BELOW STORM FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHORTWAVE INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ARC CLOUD HAS PUSHED MORE THAN 
300 NM S OF THE GULF TO NEAR 10N95W. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE 
WINDS MAY DROP BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN 24 HOURS THEN RAMP UP 
AGAIN IN 30-36 HOURS WITH THE MORE RELIABLE NAM DEPICTING 
POTENTIAL STORM FORCE WINDS BY 48 HOURS. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO/FONSECA...NWP MODELS INDICATE CURRENT 20 KT 
WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS AND UP TO 30 KT
BY 48 HOURS. NWP MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE GALES SUN NIGHT INTO 
MON. WILL LOOK AT LATER RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN 
THIS FCST.  

GULF OF PANAMA...LATEST MODEL JUST ARRIVING BUT SUGGESTS N WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT LATE SAT AND 20-25 KT SUN.

SEA OF CORTEZ...
0112 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS STILL INDICATED 20 KT WINDS IN THE SEA OF 
CORTEZ. NWP MODELS DIMINISH WINDS TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN 
12-18 HOURS. 

$$
COBB