000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161554 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI FEB 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N78W 4N95W 5N114W 1N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 5N78W AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE ALONG 1N89W 3N98W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 5N118W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 32N96W 32N112W THEN SW INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE NEARLY CUT OFF AT 20N131W WHICH IN TURN HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO A BASE NEAR 5N142W. TO THE N OF THE TROUGH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS BECOMING WELL DEFINED AT 34N132W WITH A RIDGE COLLAPSING SE OVER THE CONUS NEAR 42N110W. DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 31N99W 32N118W INTO AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER...THEN THE DRY AIR CONTINUES S WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 25N139W 15N136W...FINALLY WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 15N W OF 122W. THE DOMINANT UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS THE TROPICS IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N68W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CREST ALONG 16N121W 26N126W. DRY UPPER AIR LIES UNDER THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY S OF 20N E OF 108W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...MOSTLY ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION NEAR 5N118W...IS ADVECTED NE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 20N113W 25N98W THEN NARROWS AND DRIES OUT AS IT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND N FL BEFORE MERGING WITH ANOTHER PLUME OVER THE NW ATLC. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 1244 UTC QSCAT PASS SHOWS GALE WINDS TO 40 KT...PERHAPS A LITTLE EARLY TO PICK UP THE MORNING PEAK SURGE. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE DROPPED THE DEPICTION OF STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT THE DURATION OF 45 KT WINDS IS A FULL 24 HOURS...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A MINIMAL STORM AT 48 KT STILL REMAINS A REALITY FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...THUS THE STORM WARNING CONTINUED. THE LATEST HI RES MODEL RUN CONTINUES A MINIMAL GALE SAT NIGHT UNTIL A REINFORCING NLY SURGE ARRIVES AROUND SUNRISE SUN...INCREASING TO NEAR 45 KT EARLY SUN AFTERNOON...AND THEN A LARGE AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS SUN NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT NOON MON BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN TO A STRONG GALE. GULF OF PAPAGAYO/FONSECA...SHIP ZCBU4 REPORTED NE 20 KT AT 0900 UTC SO INITIALIZED LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE WITH 20 KT THIS MORNING. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL INCREASES NE WINDS TO 20-25 KT BY 24 HOURS AND 20-30 KT BY 48 HOURS AND SPREADS CONDITIONS N TO INCLUDE GULF OF FONSECA. MODELS EVEN HINTING AT MINIMAL NE GALE WINDS NEAR 11N88.5W SUNRISE MON. GULF OF PANAMA...LATEST MODEL JUST ARRIVING BUT SUGGESTS N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT LATE SAT AND 20-25 KT SUN...MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ON THE AFTERNOON HIGH SEAS PACKAGE. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A 1248 UTC QSCAT PASS PAINTS THE WATERS S OF 29N WITH 20-30 KT AND A 1130 UTC ALTIMETER PASS SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE MAX SEAS HEIGHT OF 11 FT IN THE GULF WATERS AT 25N109W WHERE THE GULF IS ABOUT 90 NM WIDE. I BELIEVE THIS IS FAR N UP IN THE GULF FOR NONE OF THIS SEAS HEIGHT TO BE SOME REFRACTIVE SWELL AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. MODELS DIMINISH WINDS TO LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT. $$ NELSON