000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160414 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI FEB 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N78W 4N90W 4N110W 4N127W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W-119W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE SW U.S INTO THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS EXTREME NW MEXICO AND NRN BAJA SW THROUGH 29N122W 26N127W AND TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 22N134W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION SSE THROUGH 16N130W TO A BASE NEAR 5N126W. A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 14N130W NE THROUGH 20N127W TO 26N121W. MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET ARE IN THE RANGE OF 80-120 KT RANGE...PRIMARILY E OF 122W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST BY NWP MODELS TO LIFT NE TOWARDS THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS AND BECOME DIFFUSE. A SHARPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF THE AREA WITH THE MOST ERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ALSO LIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE AND DEEPENING TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HRS. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH CENTER OF 1038 MB IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N132W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH 28N124W 19N117W AND TO 13N111W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 8N AND W OF 112W. OVERCAST MOSTLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NEWD ARE WITHIN 400 NM SE OF THE JET STREAM BRANCH MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND OVER TO WRN MEXICO. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WSW IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FLOW PRODUCED BY THE STRONG GRADIENT GENERATED BY THE HIGH CENTER N OF THE AREA ARE SEEN FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 124W-136W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING UNDER THE JET AS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR BEING FUNNELED EWD INTO THE REGION IN NLY FLOW EXHIBITING A CONFLUENT PATTERN DUE TO SQUEEZE PLAY RESULTING BETWEEN THE HIGH N OF THE AREA...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 22N134W AND A RIDGE ALONG 146W MOVING E TOWARDS THE AREA PUTS A CLAMP ON DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 14N94W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD TO A CREST NEAR 26N122W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS PRESENT N OF 10N AND E OF 107W TO ACROSS SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. GAP WINDS... HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRIDGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 KT EARLY TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE EARLY FRI MORNING. IT IS FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE SMALL AND THE DURATION ABOUT 10 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO STRONG GALE BY SUNRISE SAT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT NE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL BEGIN OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN 24 HRS AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN...THEN INCREASE TO 20-30 KT LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BRIDGE INTO THE GULF OF FONSECA BY SUNRISE SAT. NLY WINDS 20-25 KT S OF 29N IN THE SEA OF CORTEZ ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART WITH SOME REFRACTIVE SWELL POSSIBLE FROM THE NW INTO FRI AFTERNOON. $$ AGUIRRE