000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 7N78W 3N105W 3N125W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 4N85W 4N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 5N112W 5N122W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 32N102W 29N120W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE 
AT 23N137W WHICH IN TURN HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO A 
BASE NEAR 3N135W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH HAS BECOME ILL 
DEFINED ROUGHLY ALONG 25N139W 12N142W. TO THE NE A SMALL UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 36N136W WITH A RIDGE COLLAPSING OVER 
THE WESTERN CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED 
AT 34N134W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 10N103W. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 150 NM OF 18N135W AND IS ALSO 
LIKELY FLARING UNDER A MULTI LAYERED DENSE CLOUD SHIELD WITHIN 
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N131W 25N121W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE 
FROM THIS CONVECTION...AND SOME FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 
110W AND 124W...IS ADVECTED N AND THE NE IN A 480 NM WIDE PLUME 
CENTERED 20N118W 26N106W TO BEYOND 31N81W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N92W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 23N122W. A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS 
NOTED FROM 10N TO 22N E OF 110W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

GAP WINDS...
HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL BRIDGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 KT EARLY 
TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE BY SUNRISE FRI... 
AND FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE FRI AFTERNOON. 
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE SMALL 
AND THE DURATION ABOUT 10 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 
STRONG GALE BY SUNRISE SAT. MODELS SUGGEST AN NNE 20 KT SURGE 
INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AROUND SUNRISE FRI WITH NE WINDS 
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT AND ALSO BRIDGING INTO THE GULF OF 
FONSECA BY SUNRISE SAT. NLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT S OF 29N IN THE 
SEA OF CORTEZ WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OVER THE AREA S OF 25N 
SUNRISE FRI AND THEN BELOW 20 KT BY SUNSET FRI. SEAS TO 8 FT 
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART WITH SOME REFRACTIVE SWELL POSSIBLE FROM 
THE NW INTO FRI.

$$
NELSON