000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 4N100W 4N117W 3N134W 4N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 20 NM 
OF A LINE FROM 4N85W TO 4N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 4N99W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE ALONG A LINE FROM 5N111W TO 5N124W.

...DISCUSSION...

TWO STRONG FEATURES DOMINATE THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT. ONE IS A 
RIDGE CENTER NEAR 33N135W AND THE OTHER A TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO 
EXTENDING SW TO 20N140W. A SUBTROPIC JET SEGMENT WAS NOTED S OF 
THE TROUGH FROM 10N132W TO SRN BAJA THEN E OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. 
ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 1036 MB HIGH CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 
34N134W AND EXTENDED OVER THE REGION N OF 5N AND W OF 105W. THE 
HIGH WAS PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 25 TO 30 KT S OF 25N W OF 120W 
ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND SSMI IMAGERY. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST WERE N TO NW 25 KT WITH 10 FT SEAS. GAP WINDS WERE MOSTLY 
LIGHT. 

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATION WHILE 
THE STRONG TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY SSE. THE WRN 
PORTION OF THE TROUGH W OF 120W BEGINS TO GET CUTOFF FROM COLD 
AIR TO THE N. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE WITH STRONG N AND NE WINDS CONTINUING. GAP WINDS 
REMAIN LIGHT.

FOR DAY 2 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WITH MID LEVEL 
HEIGHTS REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME STRENGTH. THE STRONG MID LEVEL 
TROUGH REMAINS OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO BUT WEAKENS APPROXIMATELY 
90 METERS AT MID LEVELS AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL 
CONUS MOVES E. THE CUTOFF PORTION OF THE TROUGH REMAINS 
STATIONARY NEAR 20N130W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A GALE CONDITION 
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS ABOUT 6 
MB AND WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST DECREASE TO 15 KT. NE TRADES S 
OF 24N W OF 120W DECREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BUT SEAS REMAIN IN THE 
10 TO 14 FT RANGE. OTHER GAP WIND AREAS W OF NICARAGUA AND EL 
SALVADOR AS WELL AS S OF PANAMA REMAIN LIGHT.    

$$
RRG