000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150409
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 5N90W 4N105W 4N120W 3N134W 4N140W. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 90W-92.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-97W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N115W...AND 
EXTENDS SW THROUGH 28N129W TO A CUT-OFF LOW MOVING WWD NEAR 
22N140W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SSE THROUGH 14N134W TO
6N132W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING WWD 15-20 KT
JUST W OF THE AREA FROM 14N141W TO 21N141W. BROKEN LOW AND MID 
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE TROUGH. A SURFACE HIGH PRES WITH A PRES OF 1036 MB IS 
ANALYZED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N134W...AND IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE FURTHER N OF OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A RIDGE EXTENDS FORM 
THE HIGH SEWD THROUGH 28N126W 21N116W TO 14N109W. HIGH PRES 
COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 107W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH RELATED DRY AIR ARE PROTRUDING INTO THE W SIDE 
OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. 
DEEP TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NEWD TO THE SE 
OF THE LOW AND TROUGH TO A LINE FROM 24N118W TO 12.5N132W.

A LARGER ANTICYCLONE MOVING NWD WITH TIME IS CENTERED NEAR 
10N94W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO 12N110W AND FURTHER NW
TO A CREST NEAR 24N118W. A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED FROM 
9N-20N E OF 120W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A MOISTURE PLUME... 
ORIGINATING FROM FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 119W AND 136W... 
IS NOTED ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND CONTINUES 
EASTWARD N OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 420 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 4N130W 22N125W THEN NARROWS 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
23N113W TO 24N103W WHERE THE MOISTURE EVAPORATES.  

GAP WINDS...
HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL BRIDGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 KT EARLY 
THU NIGHT AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AROUND SUNRISE FRI...AND 
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR 45 KT WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS
FRI EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO LIKELY BEGIN TO 
WEAKEN SAT MORNING. NLY WINDS NEAR 20 KT EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE 
FRI IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF 29N 
ACROSS THE SEA OF CORTEZ ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
THU NIGHT...THEN DECREASE TO 20 KT BY FRI NIGHT FROM 25N-29N 
WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE