000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142211
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 5N100W 3N112W 3N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS 
E OF 79W AND BETWEEN 85W-96W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W-120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N119W...AND
EXTENDS SW THROUGH 30N127W 25N135W TO A CUT-OFF LOW MOVING WWD
NEAR 23N140W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SSE THROUGH 16N135W
TO 7N130W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING WWD 15-20 KT
FROM 14N140W TO 25N137W. BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.
IMMEDIATELY TO ITS NE...A NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
BETWEEN 28.5N135W TO 29N127W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRES 
WITH A PRES OF 1035 MB IS ANALYZED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
34N135W...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FORM THE HIGH SEWD THROUGH 28N126W 21N116W
TO 14N108.5W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 107W.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH RELATED DRY AIR ARE PROTRUDING
INTO THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CUT-OFF LOW. DEEP TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING
NEWD TO THE SE OF THE LOW AND TROUGH TO A LINE FROM 24N118W
TO 12.5N132W.

A LARGER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 9N94W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NW THROUGH ANOTHER SMALL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N110W TO 
A CREST AT 24N120W. A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED FROM 9N TO 
20N E OF 120W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A MOISTURE PLUME... 
ORIGINATING FROM FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 119W AND 136W... 
IS NOTED ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND CONTINUES 
EASTWARD N OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 420 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 4N130W 22N125W THEN NARROWS 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
23N113W TO 24N103W WHERE THE MOISTURE EVAPORATES.  

GAP WINDS...
HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL BRIDGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 KT EARLY 
THU NIGHT AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AROUND SUNRISE FRI...AND 
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR 45 KT WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS
FRI EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO LIKELY BEGIN TO 
WEAKEN SAT MORNING. NLY WINDS NEAR 20 KT EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE 
FRI IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF 29N
ACROSS THE SEA OF CORTEZ WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU AFTERNOON
...THEN DECREASE TO 20 KT FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 
25N...SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT OVER THE SEA BY FRI 
AFTERNOON.

$$
AGUIRRE