000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS FLUCTUATES BETWEEN 3N AND 4N E OF 140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 86W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 32N110W 30N120W TO NEAR 29N128W. AN 
UPPER CYCLONE HAS CUT OFF NEAR 23N140W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH S TO 
A BASE NEAR 8N143W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED 
ALONG 27N137W 14N140W. IMMEDIATELY TO ITS NE...A SMALL UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 28N133W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH 
PRES IS AT 33N136W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 12N100W. 
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FLARING BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 26N136W BUT THE DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE 
SAME AREA AS THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY WITHIN 120 NM OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH AND OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE UPPER CYCLONE. 

A LARGER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 8N86W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NW THROUGH ANOTHER SMALL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N109W TO A 
CREST AT 26N130W. A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED FROM 9N TO 
19N E OF 115W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A MOISTURE PLUME... 
ORIGINATING FROM FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 119W AND 136W... 
IS NOTED ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND CONTINUES 
EASTWARD N OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 420 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 4N130W 22N125W THEN NARROWS 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
23N113W TO 24N103W WHERE THE MOISTURE EVAPORATES.  

GAP WINDS...
HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL BRIDGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 KT EARLY 
THU NIGHT AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AROUND SUNRISE FRI...AND 
FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH SUNSET FRI...BUT LIKELY 
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AGAIN BY SUNRISE SAT. NLY WINDS NEAR 20 KT 
EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE FRI IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NLY WINDS 
NEAR 20 KT S OF 27N IN THE SEA OF CORTEZ WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 
25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT OVER S PART THU AND SPREAD AS FAR N AS 
29N FRI THEN WEAKEN THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$
NELSON