000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N78W 5N90W 3N105W 3N120W 4N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION 
ARE NOTED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
STATIONARY NARROW MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NW 
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N139W SWD TO A 
WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N141W AND CONTINUES TO 
12N141W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
IS SUPPORTING A SFC TROUGH ALONG 27N139W 16N141W. OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE 
INDICATED WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N TO 27N. AXIS OF 
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CROSSES
THE AREA ALONG 17N140W 27N130W CENTRAL BAJA NEAR 27N113W EWD 
INTO TEXAS NEAR 30N100W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SUGGEST CORE 
SPEEDS HAVE WEAKENED TO 110-125 KT. JET WAS ADVECTING MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EWD OVER THE AREA N OF 20N TOWARD BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO. LARGE WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONE NOTED 
EARLIER HAS BECOME ELONGATED ALONG 10N/12N WITH CENTERS NEAR 
10N97W AND 10N115W. ASSOCIATED FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA BETWEEN 
95W-125W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE WAS INDICATED NEAR 8N85W AND 
WAS AN EXTENSION OF THE ANTICYCLONES NOTED ABOVE. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED VERY DRY/STABLE AIR IN THE MID TO 
UPPER LEVELS IS PRESENT S OF 20N E OF 115W. 

AT THE SFC...
HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 8N AND W OF 
105W. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH CENTER ANALYZED NW 
OF THE AREA NEAR 33N137W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CREATED BY THE 
HIGH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE SAME 
AREA...ALTHOUGH STRONGER NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE NOTED FROM 
20N-26N W OF 132W WHERE THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC TROUGH EXISTS. 
THIS PORTION OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE STRONG NE 
WINDS AND WIND WAVES THROUGH MIDWEEK IN ADDITION TO A LARGE NW 
SWELL...ALTHOUGH LESS IN COVERAGE AS OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 
FEW DAYS.

GAP WINDS...
THE TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE GAP AREAS COMES TO AN END BY 48 
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
PRODUCES WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH SOME OF THE MORE RELIABLE NWP MODELS SUGGESTING WINDS COULD 
REACH 45 KT LATE FRI INTO SAT. ALL OTHER GAPS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN QUIET DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS 
WEAK.

$$
COBB