000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140421
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N78W 5N90W 4N100W 3N110W 3N120W
4N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-114W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 137W-139W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96.5W-98W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM 35N130W SWD TO A WELL DEFINED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N141W TO 13N143W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING A SFC TROUGH 
ALONG 140W FROM 16N-23N. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH 
EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE N OF 20.5N E OF
THE TROUGH TO NEAR 130W. AXIS OF VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET IS 
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CUTTING INTO THE AREA ALONG 
16N140W 26N120W CENTRAL BAJA NEAR 27N113W EWD INTO TEXAS NEAR 
30N100W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS CONTINUE TO SHOW CORE SPEEDS IN 
EXCESS OF 150 KT. STRONG JET WAS ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE EWD OVER THE AREA N OF 20N. A LARGE WELL DEFINED 
ANTICYCLONE IS IN THE TROPICS NEAR 7N118W WITH ASSOCIATED FLOW 
DOMINATING THE AREA BETWEEN 112W-133W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 14N W TO 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND ASSOCIATED VERY DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR IS PRESENT S OF 
20N E OF 114W. PERSISTS IN THE E PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...SUPPORTED BY UPPER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND THE 
UPPER TROUGH WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA. 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION OVER S AMERICA IS SPREADING 
INTO THE AREA S OF 5N AND E OF 87W.  

AT THE SFC...
HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 8N AND W OF 
105W. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1034 MB
HIGH CENTER ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N139W. THE TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT CREATED BY THE HIGH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TRADES 
OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA...ALTHOUGH STRONGER NE WINDS ARE 
NOTED FROM 20N-26N W OF 135W WHERE THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC 
TROUGH EXISTS. THIS COMBINATION IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE 
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS PORTION OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO 
EXPERIENCE STRONG NE WINDS AND WIND WAVES THROUGH MIDWEEK IN 
ADDITION TO A LARGE NW SWELL...ALTHOUGH LESS IN COVERAGE AS 
OBSERVED DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.

GAP WINDS...
GAP WINDS FROM NE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
AFFECTING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN A LITTLE OVER 48 HRS...THEN 
POSSIBLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE SHORTLY AFTERWARD. ALL OTHER 
GAPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 
THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK.

$$
AGUIRRE