000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N78W 4N90W 4N100W 3N110W 5N130W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W... FROM 3N TO 6N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 99W... FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W... 
FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 130W AND 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM 35N130W SWD TO A WELL DEFINED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N141W TO 13N145W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING A SFC TROUGH 
ALONG 140W FROM 18N TO 25N. AXIS OF VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET 
IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CUTTING INTO THE AREA 
ALONG 16N140W 26N120W CENTRAL BAJA NEAR 27N113W EWD INTO TEXAS 
NEAR 30N100W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS 
IN EXCESS OF 150 KT. STRONG JET WAS ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE EWD OVER THE AREA N OF 20N. A LARGE WELL DEFINED 
ANTICYCLONE IS IN THE TROPICS NEAR 7N119W WITH ASSOCIATED FLOW 
DOMINATING THE AREA BETWEEN 100W-130W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE GENERALLY BETWEEN 100W AND 119W. A SHEARED MID TO 
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SSWD FROM THE NRN CARIBBEAN INTO THE E 
PACIFIC ALONG 13N92W 8N105W. VERY DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR 
PERSISTS IN THE E PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...SUPPORTED BY 
UPPER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A 
LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
THE CONVECTION OVER S AMERICA IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA S OF 6N 
AND E OF 88W.  

AT THE SFC...
HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W EXTENDING 
SE FROM A STRENGTHENING 1032 MB CENTER NEAR 32N139W. THIS IS 
PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA...THOUGH 
STRONGER NE WINDS ARE NOTED FROM 20N-26N W OF 132W WHERE A SFC 
TROUGH ALONG 140W FROM 18N TO 25N IS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED 
FROM 19N-25N W OF 135W. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE 
STRONG NE WINDS AND WIND WAVES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE ONCE VERY 
LARGE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL THAT WAS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO DECAY AS THE 
SWELL SPREADS SE. 

GAP WINDS...
GAP WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO RELAX WITH THE TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF 
OF PANAMA BELOW 20 KT. NE WINDS 20 KT WILL PERSIST IN THE 
PAPAGAYO THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN RELAX THIS EVENING.

$$
FORMOSA