000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130914 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON FEB 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W 4N95W 3N116W 6N132W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 113W...AND BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 129W AND 137W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM 30N140W SWD TO A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N142W TO 15N150W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING A SFC TROUGH ALONG 141W FROM 18N TO 25N. AXIS OF VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CUTTING INTO THE AREA ALONG 20N140W 28N130W NORTHERN BAJA EWD INTO MEXICO/US BORDER ALONG 30N. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 150 KT. STRONG JET WAS ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EWD OVER THE AREA N OF 20N. A LARGE WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONE WAS NEAR 7N119W WITH ASSOCIATED FLOW DOMINATING THE AREA BETWEEN 100W-130W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WAS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ANTICYCLONE GENERALLY BETWEEN 100W AND 115W. A SHEARED MID TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SSWD FROM THE NRN CARIBBEAN INTO THE E PACIFIC ALONG 13N92W 8N105W. VERY DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR PERSISTS IN THE E PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...SUPPORTED BY UPPER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION OVER S AMERICA IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA S OF 6N AND E OF 88W. AT THE SFC... HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W EXTENDING SE FROM A STRENGTHENING 1030 MB CENTER NEAR 31N142W. THIS IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA...THOUGH STRONGER NE WINDS ARE NOTED FROM 20N-26N W OF 132W WHERE A SFC TROUGH ALONG 141W FROM 18N TO 25N IS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT LOCALLY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED FROM 19N-25N W OF 135W. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE STRONG NE WINDS AND WIND WAVES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE ONCE VERY LARGE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL THAT WAS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO DECAY AS THE SWELL SPREADS SE. GAP WINDS... GAP WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO RELAX WITH THE TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PANAMA BELOW 20 KT. NE WINDS 20 KT WILL PERSIST IN THE PAPAGAYO THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN RELAX THROUGH EVENING. $$ COBB