000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130404
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N80W 4N90W 3N110W 5N130W 
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 93W-97W. SIMILAR CLUSTERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W-114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ALSO WITHIN 
150NM N AND 60NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 129W-137W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AT THE SFC...
HIGH PRES RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W 
EXTENDING SE FROM A STRENGTHENING 1030 MB CENTER NEAR 31N143W. 
THIS IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE SAME 
AREA...THOUGH STRONGER NE WINDS ARE BEING FELT FROM 20N-26N W OF 
132W WHERE A SFC TROUGH ALONG 24N138W 16N141W IS TIGHTENING THE 
GRADIENT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED 
FROM 19N-25N W OF 135W. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE 
STRONG NE WINDS AND WIND WAVES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE ONCE VERY 
LARGE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL THAT WAS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO DECAY AS THE 
SWELL SPREADS SE. ELSEWHERE...GAP WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO RELAX 
WITH THE TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PANAMA BELOW 20 KT. NE WINDS 20 
KT WILL PERSIST IN THE PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE UPCOMING 
MORNING...THEN RELAX THROUGH EVENING.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 30N140W 18N151W. AN 
EMBEDDED UPPER LOW IS SEEN NEAR 23N143W. THE DYNAMICS AHEAD OF 
THIS SYSTEM IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH. 
AN UPPER HIGH IS SPINNING NEAR 7N121W THAT IS PRODUCING 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 100W-135W. A 
BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS LIE IN THE BROAD UPPER 
DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE FROM 15N-28N W OF 
BAJA.  A SUBTLE MID TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SSW FROM THE 
YUCATAN INTO THE NE PACIFIC ALONG 14N94W 8N106W. VERY DRY/STABLE 
MID TO UPPER AIR PERSISTS IN THE E PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...SUPPORTED BY UPPER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND THE 
UPPER TROUGH WITH THE LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER 
VENEZUELA.  DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION OVER S AMERICA 
IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA S OF 6N AND E OF 88W.  

$$
WILLIS