000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 4N120W 6N133W 4N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 94W AND 
97W...FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W...FROM 3N TO 5N 
BETWEEN 119W AND 125W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 135W AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...
1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N146W DRIFTING E AND PRODUCING 
NW SWELL.  FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST ALONG 36N127W 32N130W 30N134W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT.  FURTHER S...A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ALONG 33N139W 13N142W DRIFTING E.  SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH WILL 
TIGHTENING UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRODUCE HIGHER WINDS AND 
INCREASED SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 24 HOURS.      

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 40N128W 32N130W 23N145W. 
EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE CENTERED AT 32N130W AND 
23N145W MOVING E.  A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
IN THE TROPICS NEAR 7N119W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N TO S 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 33N118W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 100W AND 140W.  A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST SKIES DUE TO UPPER DIFFLUENCE ARE OVER THE NW QUADRANT 
OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
LINE FROM 16N140W 22N130W TO 26N115W OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED FROM THE ITCZ N TO 20N BETWEEN 
100W-125W.  AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE PACIFIC TO 5N95W. 
VERY DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR PERSISTS IN THE E PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA...SUPPORTED BY UPPER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE 
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW AROUND AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER VENEZUELA.  DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION 
OVER S AMERICA IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA S OF 5N AND E OF 85W.  

$$
FORMOSA