000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120903
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 3N110W 5N130W 3N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THIS 
TROUGH IN THE UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE N OF 15N W OF 125W. OTHERWISE 
A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 110W...WITH A 130-150 KT 
JET STREAM FROM 25N140W 31N120W ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN 
DECREASES TO 90-100 KT OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
NOTED FROM THE ITCZ N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W-125W.

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS 
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE PACIFIC TO 5N99W. VERY DRY/STABLE 
MID TO UPPER AIR PERSISTS IN THE E PORTION OF THE DISSCUSSION
AREA...SUPPORTED BY UPPER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE SW FLOW AHEAD 
OF THE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW AROUND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
OVER VENEZUELA. HOWEVER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION OVER 
S AMERICA IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA E OF 85W.  

A NORTH/SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 18N136W TO 10N136W.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. A 1022 MB 
HIGH PRES CENTER IS NEAR 26N123W WITH RIDGE SE TO 18N106W.

$$
DGS