000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120406
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0400 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 3N100W 4N125W 3N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W-117W...AND WITHIN 
150NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 121-137W...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN 
DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW 
HOURS.

...DISCUSSION...

AT THE SFC...RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A 1024MB HIGH OUT OF THE AREA NEAR 31N150W. 
THIS IS BUILDING BEHIND THE REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 
30N119W 23N130W 23N136W 14N139W. THE OLD FRONT IS MARKED BY A 
RATHER RAGGED...NARROW ZONE OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. LARGE...LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL PRODUCED IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS STRONGER DAYS 
LATE LAST WEEK CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA AS IT 
SLOWLY DECAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT BUILDS INTO 
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WITH A REMNANT 
TROUGH MEANDERING ALONG 26N135W 18N139W THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS 
WILL ALLOW NE WINDS AND WIND WAVES TO INCREASE S OF THE 
HIGH...SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER HEADER MIAHSFEP2 FOR MORE 
DETAILS. GAP WINDS...NLY 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW 20 KT MON AFTERNOON. NE 
TO E WINDS 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
TO BELOW 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT. NLY WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY TUE MORNING.

UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE AREA 
BETWEEN 110W-140W. A PAIR OF TROUGHS LIE ON THE NW AND NE 
PORTIONS OF THIS RIDGE. THE FIRST IS APPROACHING THE AREA...AND 
EXTENDS SW THROUGH THE BIG ISLAND. A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS 
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IN THE UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE N OF 15N W OF 
125W. THE OTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH ARIZONA INTO NW 
MEXICO THAT HAS SIMILAR MOISTURE SPREADING THROUGH SRN BAJA AND 
NRN MEXICO. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IS ELSEWHERE S 
OF 23N W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OVER THE ITCZ CONVECTION. 
THE FAR NE PACIFIC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS 
EXTENDING S FROM MEXICO TO 5N ALONG 97W. VERY DRY/STABLE MID TO 
UPPER AIR PERSISTS IN THE FAR NE PACIFIC...SUPPORTED BY UPPER 
CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW 
AROUND RIDGING EXTENDING W FROM VENEZUELA. HOWEVER...DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION OVER S AMERICA IS SPREADING INTO 
THE AREA E OF 85W.  

$$
WILLIS