000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N80W 4N90W 2N110W 4N130W 3N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W-111W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W-132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AT THE SFC...RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A 1025MB HIGH OUT OF THE AREA NEAR 30N150W. 
THIS IS BUILDING BEHIND THE NOW DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT IS 
ALONG 30N119W SW TO 21N138W. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY A RATHER 
RAGGED...NARROW ZONE OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FRONT CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED LARGE...LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA AS IT 
SLOWLY DECAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT BUILDS INTO 
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEEK...INCREASING TRADE 
FLOW ESPECIALLY FROM 6N-27N W OF 110W. GAP WINDS...NLY 20-25 KT 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW 20 
KT MON AFTERNOON. NE TO E WINDS 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT MON NIGHT. NLY WINDS TO 20 
KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
BY MON EVENING.

UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE AREA 
BETWEEN 115W-140W. A PAIR OF TROUGHS LIE ON THE NW AND NE 
PORTIONS OF THIS RIDGE. THE FIRST IS APPROACHING THE AREA...AND 
EXTENDS SW THROUGH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A BAND OF UPPER 
MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IN THE UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE N 
OF 15N W OF 130W. THE OTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 
CALIFORNIA INTO NRN BAJA...THAT HAS SIMILAR MOISTURE N OF 23N E 
OF 120W. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IS ELSEWHERE S OF 
23N W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OVER THE ITCZ CONVECTION. THE 
FAR NE PACIFIC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S 
FROM MEXICO TO 5N ALONG 100W. VERY DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR 
PERSISTS IN THE FAR NE PACIFIC...SUPPORTED BY UPPER CONFLUENCE 
BETWEEN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW AROUND 
RIDGING EXTENDING W FROM VENEZUELA. HOWEVER...DEBRIS MOISTURE 
FROM THE CONVECTION NEAR COLOMBIA IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA E 
OF 85W.  

$$
WILLIS