000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111612
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N79W 3N110W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
3N113W 6N126W 5N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE PASSING W TO E ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FIRST TROUGH 
EXTENDS ALONG 35N122W TO 28N124W WITH DRY UPPER AIR ACCOMPANYING 
THE TROUGH WITHIN 300 NM TO ITS W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT 
LIES ALONG 30N120W 22N127W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO NEAR 
20N140W BLOCKED BY A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AT 24N123W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE N OF 29N ABOUT 
240 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
SPREADING E AND NE ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO N OF A LINE 
27N123W 20N100W. 

A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION EXTENDING SW 
FRO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 29N14W ALONG 33N143W TO ANOTHER CYCLONE 
AT 26N152W. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR 26N152W IS PRODUCING A 
MOISTURE PLUME ABOUT 150 NM CENTERED FROM 27N151W TO 34N139W 
WHERE IT WIDENS AND TURNS E. ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME... 
ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
5N155W...IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 5N153W TO 
17N142W.   

THE EASTERNMOST UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N96W TO A SMALL 
UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N95W WITH THE 
TROUGH CONTINUING S TO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE DEEP IN THE TROPICS 
AT 3N95W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 8N65W IS 
RIDGING NW TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF 
THE CYCLONE OVER THE W GULF AND UNDER THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE 
SPREADING NE ACROSS FLORIDA. EXCEPT FOR DEBRIS MOISTURE NEAR THE 
ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE 
DRY ELSEWHERE N OF THE ITCZ. 

GAP WINDS...NLY 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW 20 KT MON AFTERNOON. NE TO E WINDS 20-25
KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT 
MON NIGHT. NLY WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY NOON MON.

$$
NELSON