000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG EQ80W 3N97W 2N110W 4N125W 4N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W 
AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 118W-131W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER DIFFLUENCE...BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST 
COAST AND RIDGING OVER NRN MEXICO STRETCHING NWD TO THE PACIFIC 
NW...IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN IN WV 
IMAGERY N OF 25N AND E OF 130W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
SUPPORTING AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA 
NEAR 32N124W AND CONTINUES SW TO 20N140W. A THIN ROPE CLOUD 
EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY CLEARLY DEFINES THE FRONT. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 90NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. 
FRESH TO STRONG PREFRONTAL AND PREFRONTAL WINDS STILL EXIST 
MAINLY N OF 27N...BUT EXPECTED TO RELAX THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE 
ENERGY LIFTS N. HOWEVER...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER HEADER MIAHSFEP2 FOR MORE DETAILS. UKMET WAVE MODEL SEEMS 
TO BE THE MOST ON TRACK WITH THIS SWELL EVENT WITH BOTH THE NWW3 
AND FNMOC WAVE MODELS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...IN COMPARISON WITH THE 
1450Z JASON ALTIMETER PASS. 

MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 110W...OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ...IS 
DOMINATED BY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR AND GENTLE RIDGING. FURTHER 
E...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO 
ALONG 24100W 19N104W TO 11N107W. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ALONG 
BETWEEN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH THE SLY FLOW 
AROUND CARIBBEAN RIDGING IS SUPPORTING THE EXTREMELY DRY/STABLE 
AIR IN THE FAR NE PACIFIC...ESPECIALLY FROM 6N TO 18N BETWEEN 
100W-82W...WITH THE DRIEST UPPER AIR NOTED NEAR NICARAGUA. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...A PERSISTENT 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
ABOUT 350-400 NM W OF CENTRAL BAJA NEAR 27N121W. MODERATE TRADES 
ARE S OF THIS HIGH...MAINLY FROM 3N-14N W OF 110W. GAP 
WINDS...NLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 20-25 KT ARE 
EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-30 KT SUN...THEN RELAX INTO 
MON. NE TO E WINDS 20-30 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUE 
INTO SUN THEN RELAX TO ABOUT 20 KT MON. NLY WINDS TO 20 KT IN 
THE GULF OF PANAMA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 
MON.

$$
WILLIS