000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W 3N86W 4N98W 3N106W 4N118W 
4N131W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 20 NM OF A 
LINE FROM 3N97W TO 3N110W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 
5N112W AND 5N121W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG ZONAL JET IS MAKING ITSELF KNOWN ALONG 35N TONIGHT. THE 
JET IS ON THE S SIDE OF A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH W OF 130W N OF 
30N. OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT THE OLD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES 
TO LUMBER EWD NOW ALONG 105W CAUGHT UNDER A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUT 
STILL GETTING ENOUGH PUSH FROM THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW. ON THE 
SURFACE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE NW PORTION ALONG A 
LINE FROM 30N135W TO 21N140W. QUIKSCAT AND SSMI SHOW WINDS 25 TO 
30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND 20 TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WLY 
SWELL OF 15 TO 20 FT IS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
CENTER 1022 MB WAS NEAR 25N121W PRODUCING NE TRADES 20 TO 25 KT 
BETWEEN 5N AND 15N W OF 110W ACCORDING TO SSMI AND QUIKSCAT. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE LIGHT NWLY. GAP WINDS THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC AND W OF NICARAGUA ARE MOSTLY LIGHT..WHILE S OF 
PANAMA WINDS ARE 10 TO 15 KT ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND 
SSMI..SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN WHAT GFS MODEL SHOWS FOR 06Z.

LATER DAY 1 THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVER SRN MEXICO WILL 
CONTINUE TO LUMBER ALONG BEING PUSHED BY THE OVERALL ZONAL FLOW 
W OF 110W. A STRONG JET POWERED FLOW WILL CONTINUE N OF 20N W OF 
120W WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG 133W N OF 30N MOVING RAPIDLY 
EWD. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A NEW COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE E TO A LINE 30N130W 21N140W. 
WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT MOSTLY 20 KT BUT NW SWELL OF 
15 TO 20 FT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE CENTER WEAKENS SOME TO 1020 MB WHILE REMAINING 
STATIONARY NEAR 25N122W.  LITTLE CHANGE TO NE TRADES AND WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT. SOME WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC LATER DAY 1 BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT. 
GAP WINDS W OF NICARAGUA AND S OF PANAMA SHOULD REMAIN NE 15 TO 
20 KT.

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE N OF 20N 
MAKING IT'S WAY RIGHT ON ACROSS THE AREA TO 105W. ONE WEAK 
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ALONG 115W AND ANOTHER APPROACHING THE NW 
CORNER ALONG 142W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS 
AS IT MOVES TO 30N120W 21N132W. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT 
WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT BUT NW SWELL OF 12 TO 14 FT WILL FOLLOW 
THE FRONT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE DRIFTS TO NEAR 23N121W AND NE 
TRADES ARE CONFINED TO AN AREA FROM 8N TO 15N W OF 120W. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. GAP WINDS REMAIN 15 TO 
20 KT.

$$
RRG