000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N79W 6N84W 3N105W 5N114W 5N140W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
94W-110W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 
133W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE COMPLEX CYCLONIC GYRE WHICH WAS LOCATED BETWEEN HAWAII AND 
ALASKA YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY E TO A POSITION ALONG 141W 
THIS EVENING...AND STILL HARBORS SEVERAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS 
WHICH ARE ROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 
CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE GYRE ALONG 139W TO 
ABOUT 26N AND SHOULD SOON BE FOLLOWED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS BY 
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WHICH IS DIVING SE NEAR 36N145W. THE FIRST 
SHORTWAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF WINDS TO GALE FORCE WHICH 
ARE BRUSHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH WINDS IN 
THE DISCUSSION AREA ARE ONLY TO 30 KT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 
LIES FARTHER SE FROM 30N130W TO 23N140W AND THERE HAS BEEN 
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS 
TO FORM WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE BOUNDARY. A SECOND COLD FRONT 
FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W IS QUICKLY BECOMING THE MAIN FEATURE AND 
WILL OVERTAKE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVERNIGHT...THEN TRAVERSE 
EWD TOWARDS BAJA OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS.

JUST DOWNSTREAM...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM 18N120W NE TO 
FAR NRN MEXICO...THEN THE FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO A TROUGH ALONG 
105W. THE TROUGH IS PARTLY CUT-OFF FROM THE SWIFTER MID-LATITUDE 
FLOW OVER THE U.S. AND THUS IS ONLY MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS 
MEXICO. IN ITS WAKE...STRONG UPPER CONFLUENCE IS PRODUCING 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA S OF 20N TO 
THE ITCZ...W OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 105W IS PRODUCING BROAD SWLY 
FLOW ACROSS SRN MEXICO/GUATEMALA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC 
WATERS...BUT A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IS INHIBITING ACTIVE 
WEATHER. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN WWD 
ALONG 16N WITH STRONG/MODERATE SUBSIDENCE CONTINUING ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR UP AND DOWN THE COAST 
AND THE LARGE EXPANSE OF ADJACENT WATERS...AND THE GAP WINDS ARE 
NOT SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.

$$
BERG