000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N77W 2N105W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE POINT 5.1N133.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
20N110W AND IS MOVING EAST OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.  FEW CLOUDS AND 
NO WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

STRONG SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED N OF 23N W OF THE AREA AND IS 
CAUSING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 23N WEST OF 120W.  
THE ATMOSPHERE IS DIFLUENT ALOFT WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.  LINE OF SHOWERS IS 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
A LINE THROUGH 32N131W TO 27N140W.  THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW NORTH OF 25N IN 48 
HOURS.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING.  

EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ THE AREA OUTSIDE 
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

SURFACE...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N127W TO 24N140W.  

HIGH 1021 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N121W. RIDGE COVERS THE AREA 
SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF 15N.

SOUTH OF 15N BROAD TROUGH.

GAP WINDS OF 20 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA OF NEAR 20 KT WILL 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 24 HOURS.

$$
LL