000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081616
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N78W  4N87W  2N100W  4N115W  4N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF 4N127W.  NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. 

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS S FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE EQUATOR 
AT 120W FLANKED BY NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON WRN SIDE AND 
VERY BROAD CARIBBEAN RIDGE DOWNSTREAM.  AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY 
DRY S OF 20N...BUT TROUGH JET CORE ADVECTS MODERATE AMOUNTS OF 
MOISTURE N OF 20N. 

ENTIRE REGION UNDER CARIBBEAN RIDGE...INCLUDING E PAC...REMAINS 
VERY DRY E OF 95W.  BROAD RIDGE ALOFT SPLITTING INTO TWO 
ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS...ONE AT 5N85W AND ANOTHER AT 11N51W. 
THIS WEAKENS PRES OVER WRN CARIBBEAN ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO 
SUBSIDE...CONSEQUENTLY GAP WINDS INTO E PAC ACROSS GULFS OF  
PAPAGAYO...PANAMA  AND TEHUANTEPEC ARE DROPPED WITHIN 12 HRS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK COLD FRONT 30N138W TO 28N140W ATTRACTS BRISK WINDS ON BOTH 
SIDES OF BOUNDARY...BUT ITS MAIN FEATURE IS LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN 
THAT FOLLOWS...UP TO TWENTY FOOTERS...REACHING WELL INTO E PAC 
TO THE EQUATOR.  

TRADES ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1020 MB 
NEAR 32N122W DIMINISH AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND IS PUSHED E BY 
INCOMING COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE.    

$$
WALLY BARNES