000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N78W 4N90W 3N103W 4N116W 4N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 2N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG A LINE 
FROM 4N94W TO 5N101W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 8N102W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT MID LEVELS TURNING NEGATIVELY TONIGHT 
ALONG 120W AND MOVING E 10 KT. VERY STRONG ZONAL FLOW N OF 25N W 
OF 130W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE CENTER 1020 MB 
WAS NEAR 25N125W WITH NE TRADES CONFINED TO BETWEEN 6N AND 17N W 
OF 120W AT 20 TO 25 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI AND QUIKSCAT. SW WINDS 
25 TO 30 KT ARE BLOWING N OF 25N W OF 135W AS A COLD FRONT MOVES 
OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST ARE LIGHT NWLY. TEHUANTEPEC WINDS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. 
OTHER GAP WINDS W OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR NE TO E 20 TO 30 
KT AND S OF PANAMA N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO 115W. THE SYSTEM IS 
TOTALLY CUTOFF FROM ANY COLD AIR FURTHER N. VERY STRONG W AND SW 
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE N O 25N W OF 130W. ON THE SURFACE 
LATER DAY 1 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW PORTION OF 
THE AREA WITH SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH WLY SWELL INCREASING 9 
TO 12 FT. THE OLD PACIFIC HIGH 1020 MB REMAINS ALONG 120W WITH 
LITTLE CHANGE TO NE TRADES AND WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST. 
TEHUANTEPEC WINDS WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KT WHILE OTHER GAP WINDS 
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.

FOR DAY 2 THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO 110W AS MID LEVEL 
RIDGING BUILDS ALONG 120W. A NEW SHORTWAVE MOVES ESE TO 140W 
WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SWLY N OF 20N W OF 125W. 
ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 SWLY WINDS TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE 
NW PORTION N OF 25N W OF 130W WITH INCREASING WLY SWELL OF 10 TO 
16 FT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE CHANGES LITTLE DAY 2 WITH A 1022 MB 
CENTER DRIFTING N TO 29N120W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN 
LIGHT WITH GAP WINDS ALSO DECREASING TO 15 KT.
 
$$
RRG