000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080357
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N79W 3N90W 1N107W 5N120W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 
105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 3N137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
9N158W...CRESTS NEAR 31N143W JUST UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 47N134W WITH A 
NARROW TROUGH EXTENDING SE ALONG 30N121W 24N121W TO ANOTHER 
CYCLONE AT 23N115W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING S INTO DEEP 
TROPICS TO BASE NEAR 3N128W. A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE SPREADS E 
ACROSS THE RIDGE CREST WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 
27N153W 30N137W TO THE TROUGH AXIS AT 20N124W. A SECOND...BUT
NARROW...MOISTURE PLUME FORMS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF POINTS 16N116W 26N120W AND TURNS NE ACROSS THE 
UPPER LEVELS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N91W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W TO A SHARP CREST AT 5N123W THEN A MORE GENTLE CREST 
TO THE N NEAR 25N115W. THE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE IS 
SWINGING CYCLONICALLY NE ERODING THE RIDGE BETWEEN 12N AND 22N. 
A THIRD AREA OF UPPER MOISTURE IS UNDER THIS RIDGE AND OVER THE 
NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE UPPER CYCLONE AT 19N115W. THIS MOISTURE IS 
ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN OLD 
MEXICO...N OF 20N...AND ACROSS SW TEXAS.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS RIDGE ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 106W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
BEGINNING TO SPREAD AS FAR N AS 11N AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF 
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 10N91W. 
   
ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE HIGH PRES 1020 MB IS 
CENTERED NEAR 26N120W AND RIDGES SW TO NEAR 22N138W.

GAP WINDS...NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED 
TO 25 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW 20 KT LATE THU. 
NE TO E WINDS 20-30 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO 
FINALLY WEAKEN TO 20 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT. NLY WINDS ABOUT 20 KT 
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA ALSO NOW FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRI.

$$
NELSON