000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N79W 3N90W 1N107W 5N120W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 
104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 3N133W 4N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
7N160W...CRESTS NEAR 31N140W JUST UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 45N145W WITH A 
NARROW TROUGH SE ALONG 30N126W 29N125W TO ANOTHER CYCLONE AT 
19N115W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING S INTO DEEP TROPICS TO BASE 
NEAR 3N117W. A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIDGE CREST 
WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 35N143W TO THE TROUGH 
AXIS AT 25N126W. A SECOND NARROW MOISTURE PLUME FORMS E OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF POINTS 16N120W 26N122W 
AND TURNS NE ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OF CALIFORNIA. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 9N91W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W TO A GENTLE CREST AT 25N11W. A THIRD AREA OF UPPER 
MOISTURE UNDER THIS RIDGE AND OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
UPPER CYCLONE AT 19N115W. THIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND WILL 
LIKELY REACH THE SW TEXAS BORDER BY SUNSET TODAY.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS RIDGE ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 105W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
BEGINNING TO SPREAD N AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE AT 9N91W. 
   
ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE HIGH PRES 1022 MB IS 
CENTERED NEAR 26N117W AND RIDGES SW TO NEAR 21N140W.

GAP WINDS...NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED 
TO 30 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW 20 KT LATE THU. 
NE TO E WINDS 20-30 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO 
FINALLY WEAKEN TO 20 TO 25 KT FRI...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN 
DELAYING THE WEAKENING TREND. NLY WINDS ABOUT 20 KT IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA ALSO NOW FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRI.

$$
NELSON