000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N79W  3N88W  4N135W  2N127W  4N140W.
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 3N101W.
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS W OF 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM 32N129W TO S OF EQUATOR AT 118W 
HAS ABSOLUTE CONTROL OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW W OF 110W.  CUTOFF 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 45N135W PULLING NE WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE AT 
33N127W.  SURFACE LOW PRES 998 MB AT 33N150W WITH STRONG COLD 
FRONT APPROACHING 140W WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS.  MODERATE AMOUNTS OF 
MOISTURE ON LEE SIDE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA WHERE WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING COAST COULD PROMPT 
INTO PRECIPITATION.  EVENT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH PRES 
1021 BEHIND FRONT IS SQUEEZED BY INCOMING COLD FRONT NEAR 140W. 

CARIBBEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLS ENTIRE BASIN AND 
EXTENDS INTO EPAC TO 110W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER RIDGE DOMAIN
DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  MINOR AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SEEN OVER 
SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN TROUGH AND 
RIDGE ENHANCES ITS UPLIFT.  

AT THE SURFACE...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE WINDS SUBSIDING SLOWER THAN 
EXPECTED AND GALE WARNING WAS EXTENDED SIX MORE HRS...TILL 1800 
UTC AS QUIKSCAT IDENTIFIED SEVERAL 35 KT WINDS AND SURFACE OBS 
FROM 0600 UTC INDICATED 40 KT AND 17 FT SEAS STILL LINGER.

TRADE W OF 120W FROM 6N TO 15N SHOULD SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRES OFF 
CALIFORNIA COAST IS PUSHED E.  GAP WINDS ACROSS GULFS OF PANAMA 
AND PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN 24-36 
HRS. 
  
$$
WALLY BARNES