000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N78W 4N90W 3N110W 2N127W 1N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N95W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION 
CENTERED NEAR 30N100W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM OF A 
LINE FROM 5N131W TO 5N139W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG ZONAL WLY FLOW IS SETTING UP TONIGHT W OF 125W WITH A 
LARGE TROUGH TO THE N OF THE AREA MOVING EWD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
ALONG 120W WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD. A JET SEGMENT SE OF THE TROUGH 
EXTENDED FROM 10N120W ACROSS LOWER BAJA. A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE 
WAS OVER MEXICO N OF 20N. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A GALE 
CONDITION PREVAILS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AND QUIKSCAT CONFIRMS 
WITH A 35 KT WIND BARB. SSMI SHOWS A SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS 
SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING SW TO 10N102W. A 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH 
WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. THE PACIFIC HIGH 1020 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR 
25N 130W AND NE TRADES OF 20 KT WAS CONFINED TO BETWEEN 7N AND 
15N W OF 120W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WERE LIGHT NWLY WHILE 
GAP WINDS W OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR AS WELL AS S OF PANAMA 
WERE 20 TO 25 KT.

LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN W OF 130W AS 
STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE E JUST N OF THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY E TO 
120W WHILE FLAT RIDGING CONTINUES E OF 110W OVER MEXICO. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW PORTION WILL WASH 
OUT AS SWLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PACIFIC HIGH 
WITH A 1020 MB CENTER DRIFTS TO NEAR 27N122W WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
TO THE NE TRADES. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT. 
TEHUANTEPEC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT. OTHER 
GAP WINDS WILL REMAIN THE SAME.

FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NW PORTION BECOMES A 
LITTLE MORE SWLY AS HEIGHTS RISE E OF 120W. THE SHORTWAVE ALONG 
120W MOVES SLOWLY E TO 115W AS RIDGING BUILDS ALONG 105W. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 2 SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PREVAIL N OF 25N W OF 
130W AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA. WLY SWELL TO 12 FT 
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 130W. THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
WITH IT'S 1020 MB CENTER DRIFTS NE TO 30N120W WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
TO THE NE TRADES S OF 15N W OF 120W. BAJA WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AS 
DO TEHUANTEPEC WINDS. GAP WINDS W OF NICARAGUA/EL SALVADOR 
REMAIN NE 20 KT AND WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA REMAIN NLY 
AT 20 KT.

$$
RRG