000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070353
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 4N101W 4N120W 4N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 
101W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
10N160W...CRESTS NEAR 32N139W JUST UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 42N142W WITH A 
NARROW TROUGH SE ALONG 30N132W 22N123W 9N120W. A BAND OF UPPER 
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED E ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE...WITHIN 180 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N156W TO 30N135W WHERE THE PLUME SPLITS 
WITH ONE BRANCH TURNING NE EVENTUALLY SPILLING N ACROSS THE 
WESTERN CONUS. A SECOND BRANCH TURNS SE INTO THE UPPER TROUGH 
WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE IN TURN EXITING THE TROUGH NEAR 
30N123W AND MERGING AGAIN WITH THE NORTHERN MOISTURE PLUME AND 
SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHER BAJA PENINSULA AND THE DESERT SW OF 
THE CONUS. TO THE S OF OF THIS MOISTURE THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR 
QUITE DRY W OF 120W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER RIDGE 
NEAR 19N67W AND ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS NOW NOTED NEAR 2N84W. 
TOGETHER THEY RIDGE W ACROSS THE TROPICAL E PAC TO A GENTLE 
CREST ALONG 12N115W 20N112W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS RIDGE 
ENHANCED A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR 9N119W WITH THE 
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE STILL NOTED FROM 8N TO 20N BETWEEN 
106W AND 117W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO ENHANCING A SMALL AREA 
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 94W AND 102W WITH THE DEBRIS 
CIRRUS ADVECTED NE...BUT EVAPORATING ALONG 7N ATTM.
   
ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE HIGH PRES 1020 MB IS 
STATIONARY NEAR 29N123W AND RIDGES SW TO NEAR 23N132W.

GAP WINDS...NLY GALE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE STRENGTH LATE TONIGHT. NE TO E 
WINDS 20-30 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO FINALLY 
WEAKEN TO 20 KT LATE THU...ABOUT 24 HOURS LONGER THAT PREVIOUSLY 
PROGGED. NLY WINDS ABOUT 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EXPECTED 
WEAKEN WED NIGHT TO AROUND 15 KT.

$$
NELSON