000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 4N101W 4N120W 4N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 
98W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
10N160W...CRESTS NEAR 32N136W JUST UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 42N142W WITH A 
NARROW TROUGH SE ALONG 30N126W 22N124W 13N120W. A BAND OF UPPER 
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED E ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE...WITHIN 180 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N150W TO 30N136W WHERE THE PLUME SPLITS 
WITH ONE BRANCH TURNING NE EVENTUALLY SPILLING N ACROSS THE 
WESTERN CONUS. A SECOND BRANCH TURNS SE INTO THE UPPER TROUGH 
WITH SOME ONE MOISTURE IN TURN EXITING THE TROUGH NEAR 30N123W 
AND MERGING AGAIN WITH THE NORTHERN MOISTURE PLUME AND SPREADING 
ACROSS THE NORTHER BAJA PENINSULA AND THE DESERT SW OF THE 
CONUS. TO THE S OF OF THIS MOISTURE THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR 
QUITE DRY W OF 120W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER RIDGE 
NEAR 18N65W AND ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS NOW NOTED NEAR 2N84W. 
TOGETHER THEY RIDGE W ACROSS THE TROPICAL E PAC TO A GENTLE 
CREST ALONG 12N115W 18N107W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS RIDGE 
ENHANCED A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NEAR 9N119W WITH THE 
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE STILL NOTED FROM 8N TO 17N BETWEEN 
108W AND 119W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO ENHANCING A SMALL AREA 
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 94W AND 98W WITH THE DEBRIS 
CIRRUS ADVECTED NE BUT EVAPORATING ALONG 7N ATTM.
   
ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE HIGH PRES 1022 MB IS 
STATIONARY NEAR 30N123W AND RIDGES SW TO NEAR 23N132W.

GAP WINDS...NLY GALE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE STRENGTH TONIGHT. NE TO E WINDS 
20-30 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO FINALLY WEAKEN TO 
20 KT LATE THU...ABOUT 24 HOURS LONGER THAT PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. 
NLY WINDS ABOUT 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EXPECTED WEAKEN WED 
NIGHT TO AROUND 15 KT.

$$
NELSON