000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...4N77W  4N113W  5N125W  4N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION..

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
OMEGA BLOCK FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AS DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 
32N129W LIFTS ANTICYCLONIC CENTER INTO SW CONUS FLATTENING FLOW 
OVER MOST EPAC E OF 120W.  JET STREAM WITH 100+ KTS ROUNDING 
BASE OF TROUGH ADVECTING PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DIRECTED 
TO COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA BUT UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE 
STILL OVERCOMES ANY MECHANICAL UPLIFT AT LOWER LEVELS. AIR MASS 
REMAINS DRY ELSEWHERE W OF 120W WITH ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF WATER 
AVAILABLE FOR ITCZ CONVECTION WHICH REMAINS FAIRLY ISOLATED.

HEALTHY BROAD MID / UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS 
INTO E PAC N OF 5N E OF 120W MAINTAINING IT VERY DRY.    

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTERED AT 28N123W 1021 MB HOLDS ITS POSITION AS COLD 
FRONT SQUEEZES ITS WRN FRINGES.  FRONT STALLS S OF 32N...WEAKENS 
AND BECOMES DIFFUSE WITHIN 48 HRS KEEPING HIGH PRES UNSCATHED. 
TRADE WINDS ASSOCIATED TO RIDGE WEAKEN IN COVERAGE AND SPEED BUT 
THE LARGE NW SWELLS WILL LINGER BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD. 

GAP WINDS...N GALE WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE.  GULFS 
OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH FORECAST 
PERIOD AT A SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSITY AS LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA 
WEAKENS.

$$
WALLY BARNES