000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060357
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG ALONG 4N77W 4N110W 6N126W 2N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 
138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH SPLITS N AMERICA DIAGONALLY FROM NE CANADA TO 
W CENTRAL OLD MEXICO WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N95W THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 
CYCLONE AT 24N103W AND ANOTHER QUASI STATIONARY AT 19N107W AND 
CONTINUING SW TO A BASE DEEP IN THE TROPICS AT 11N121W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 21N118W SHIFTING E WITH 
TIME. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 34N115W 
AND IS ALSO SHIFTING E WITH TIME. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 40N133W WITH A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 
16N125W...ALL ROTATING NE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FILLING 
NEAR 33N140W WITH A FRONT OCCLUDING ALONG 32N131W 22N131W THEN 
DIFFUSE TO NEAR 15N142W. ONLY A FEW CELLS ARE ENHANCED ALONG THE 
FRONT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE...ORIGINATING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE 
NEAR 6N170W...CRESTS NEAR 34N140W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPILLING E 
ACROSS THE RIDGE INTO THE UPPER TROUGH...OVER THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 22N W OF 120W. 

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC 
NEAR 25N55W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW INTO THE E PAC TO NEAR 
2N90W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE...FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER THE 
E PAC CONTINUES TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL 
EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. SOME DEBRIS 
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N103W 2N132W. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR 
DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE HIGH PRES 1022 MB NEAR 
31N123W RIDGES SE TO NEAR 18N105W AND RIDGES SW TO NEAR 20N130W.

GAP WINDS...NLY GALE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED. NE TO E WINDS 20-30 KT IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO FINALLY WEAKEN TO 20 KT LATE 
WED. NLY WINDS ABOUT 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EXPECTED WEAKEN 
EARLY WED TO AROUND 15 KT.

$$
NELSON