000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052210
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 4N110W 6N126W 2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 15 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH SPLITS N AMERICA DIAGONALLY FROM NE CANADA TO 
W CENTRAL OLD MEXICO WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N95W THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 
CYCLONE AT 19N107W CONTINUING SW TO A BASE DEEP IN THE TROPICS 
AT 11N111W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 19N118W SHIFTING E WITH 
TIME. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 34N117W 
AND IS ALSO SHIFTING E WITH TIME. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 38N132W WITH A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 
18N128W...ALL ROTATING NE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FILLING 
AT 33N135W 1011 MB WITH A COLD FRONT OCCLUDING ALONG 32N132W 
22N125W BECOMING STATIONARY AND DIFFUSE TO NEAR 15N142W. ONLY A 
FEW CELLS ARE ENHANCED ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE 
RIDGE...ORIGINATING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 6N170W...CRESTS 
NEAR 33N140W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPILLING E ACROSS THE RIDGE 
INTO THE UPPER TROUGH...OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 22N W OF 
120W. 

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC 
NEAR 23N57W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW INTO THE E PAC TO NEAR 
2N90W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE...FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER THE 
E PAC CONTINUES TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL 
EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. OTHERWISE VERY 
DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE HIGH PRES 1022 MB NEAR 
31N123W RIDGES SE TO NEAR 21N110W AND RIDGES SW TO NEAR 20N133W.

GAP WINDS...NLY GALE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED. NE TO E WINDS 20-30 KT IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO LATE WED AS WELL. 
NLY WINDS ABOUT 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EXPECTED WEAKEN 
EARLY WED.

$$
NELSON