000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051630
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG..5N77W 4N115W 5N126W 5N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 119W TO 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
DEEP LAYER NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM 32N131W TO 
10N123W SLIDING NE ALONG UPSTREAM SIDE OF NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE ALONG 117W.  SOME MOISTURE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH N 
OF 20N W OF 117W ALSO SHIFTING NE.  FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS UNDER 
RIDGE AND S OF 20N W OF 100W.  SECOND UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE 
WEAKENING TROUGH FROM SE TEXAS TO 15N110W COMPLETED OMEGA BLOCK 
WHICH IS NOW BREAKING DOWN SLOWLY.  HEALTHY JET CORE ON LEE SIDE 
OF SECOND TROUGH SUPPLIES GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS GULF OF 
MEXICO AND SE CONUS INTO COLD FRONT OVER N FLORIDA WHICH IN TURN 
IS SOAKING ENTIRE PENINSULA.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED RUNS THROUGH 32N133W 25N133W 20N136W.  
ATTENDANT BRISK WINDS N OF 28N AHEAD AND BEHIND FRONT...BUT ITS 
MAIN FEATURE IS LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN WHICH SHOULD AFFECT BASIN W 
OF 105W. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 45 KT 
BEFORE SUBSIDING WELL BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

GAP WINDS OVER GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA REMAIN UNCHANGED 
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.   

S$$
WALLY BARNES