000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050401
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 1N103W 5N120W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 15 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH SPLITS N AMERICA DIAGONALLY FROM NE CANADA TO 
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N95W THROUGH 
AN EMBEDDED CYCLONE AT 21N108W AND ANOTHER NEAR 13N110W AND 
CONTINUING SW TO YET ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE AT 8N120W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 21N120W SHIFTING E WITH 
TIME. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS N TO BEYOND 33N122W 
AND IS ALSO SHIFTING RAPIDLY E WITH TIME. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE 
IS CENTERED NEAR 33N140W WITH A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 
NEAR 24N127W ROTATING NE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS AT 
31N137W 1004 MB WITH A COLD FRONT OCCLUDING ALONG 32N135W 
24N134W BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 17N140W WITH SCATTERED 
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED DEBRIS MOISTURE IS 
CONTAINED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 26N130W TO WELL 
BEYOND 32N135W. ADDITIONALLY SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE IS STILL E 
INTO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE REGION...ROUGHLY TO THE N OF 25N 
BETWEEN 128W AND 120W. OTHERWISE VERY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES 
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 103W. 

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 22N64W HAS A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 13N90W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE...FROM 
PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER THE E PAC CONTINUES TO SPREAD NE WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N100W TO 27N91W WHERE THE MOISTURE 
PLUME WIDENS TO ABOUT 500 NM CENTERED ALONG 32N83W TO WELL 
BEYOND 35N70W IN A VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 30N121W 
RIDGES SE TO NEAR 20N109W AND RIDGES SW TO NEAR 20N135W.

GAP WINDS...NLY GALE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED. NE TO E WINDS 20-30 KT IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO LATE WED AS WELL. 
NLY WINDS ABOUT 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EXPECTED WEAKEN 
EARLY WED. NW WINDS IN THE SEA OF CORTEZ HAVE WEAKEN 20 KT AS 
EXPECTED.

$$
NELSON