000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  5N77W  5N93W  6N98W  5N110W  5N123W  5N140W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 129W TO 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED DEEP LAYER TROUGH ENTERS E PAC 
BASIN AT 30N140W TO 9N135W WITH THE HELP OF 150 KT JET STREAM 
APPROACHING 140W.  TROUGH CUTS DEEP INTO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMAIN
BRINGING IN ONLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE N OF 24N W OF 137W AS 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCES SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONVECTION.

LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 123W STANDS IN THE WAY 
OF TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SHIFT ITS COURSE MORE NE TAKING AWAY 
SUPPORT FOR ITS SURFACE FEATURE.  COLD FRONT TRACK CONSEQUENTLY 
SHIFT NE LATE TONIGHT TAKING GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS N OF 
AREA.  E PAC BASIN REMAINS VERY DRY ALOFT FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 
105W.  

SECOND DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS MEXICO TO 
108W AT EQUATOR COMPLETES LARGE OMEGA BLOCK CONFIGURATION ACROSS 
MID AND WRN CONUS.  STRONG 190 KT JET CORE BRINGS STREAM OF 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NE INTO SE TEXAS AND NWRN GULF OF MEXICO 
BUT LACK OF SURFACE UPLIFTING FEATURES PREVENTS ANY SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TAIL 
END OF STATIONARY FRONT NEAR BAY OF CAMPECHE.  DRY CONDITIONS 
CONTINUE EASTWARD OVER REMAINDER OF E PAC AS UPPER RIDGE 
DOWNSTREAM FROM SECOND TROUGH REMAINS WELL ANCHORED. 

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG ATLC RIDGE MAINTAINS STEADY FLOW OF 
STRONG TRADES ACROSS CARIBBEAN PRODUCING GAP WINDS OVER GULFS OF 
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA.  LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST 
PERIOD.  ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ALSO CROSSES WINDS RESULTING 
FROM STATIONARY FRONT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO E PAC EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD.    
 
SURFACE E PAC HIGH PRES 1026 MB AT 33N126W ALSO PACKING BRISK 
TRADES W OF 130W AND TIGHT GRADIENT IN NW CORNER PRODUCING GALE 
FORCE WINDS AS MENTIONED ABOVE.  RIDGE ACTING AS SOURCE OF COOL 
NW WINDS OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD BUDGE SLIGHTLY E WITH 
DIMINISHING WINDS WITHIN 24 HRS.   

$$
WALLY BARNES