000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040359
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N79W 5N90W 4N105W 6N112W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 9N108W 6N112W 
5N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
JUST W OF THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N141W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH SPLITS N AMERICA DIAGONALLY FROM NE CANADA TO 
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N100W THROUGH AN 
EMBEDDED CYCLONE AT 25N106W TO A BASE DEEP INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 
7N115W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 17N133W SHIFTING E WITH 
TIME. A RIDGE EXTENDS N ALONG 26N131W TO WELL BEYOND 33N130W. A 
DEEP LAYERED COMPLEX CYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE AREA WITH CYCLONIC 
CENTERS WELL DEFINED AT 38N151W AND ANOTHER ILL DEFINED NEAR 
31N147W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE SOUTHERN CYCLONE ENHANCED 
SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY A SURFACE FRONT LIES ALONG 32N138W 26N140W 
WITH SHOWERS ENHANCED ALONG THE FRONT. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE...BUT 
SOME OF THE MOISTURE SPILLS E ACROSS THE RIDGE INTO THE UPPER 
LEVELS OF THE REGION...ROUGHLY TO THE N OF 27N W OF 122W. 
OTHERWISE VERY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 
109W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N73W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SW 
TO NEAR 8N96W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
CONVECTION WITH 30 NM OF LINE 9N108W 6N112W 5N129W...SOME 
DIRECTLY ALONG THE ITCZ...WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
ADVECTED NE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N111W 20N101W 
WHERE THE MOISTURE PLUME WIDENS TO ABOUT 600 NM CENTERED ALONG 
26N96W TO BEYOND 32N86W IN A VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 34N124W 
RIDGES SE TO NEAR 17N109W AND RIDGES SW TO NEAR 16N137W.

GAP WINDS...NLY WIND 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS 
RUNS CONTINUE A MINIMAL GALE WELL PAST 48 HOURS. NE TO E WINDS 
20-25 KT IN THE PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT 
LATE SUN WITH ONE MODEL HINTING AT MINIMAL GALE. NLY WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID 
WEEK. NW WINDS 20-25 KT IN THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ SHOULD 
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT.

$$
NELSON