000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031627
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG ALONG 3N77W  3N83W  8N107W  6N122W  6N140W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 108W TO 115W.  

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REACHES ALONG 
145W TO 18N WITH HELP OF DIGGING 185 KT JET STREAM SUPPORTING 
INTENSIFYING DEEP SURFACE LOW PRES 1000 MB.  ATTENDANT STRONG 
COLD FRONT PROMISES GALE FORCE WINDS TO NW PART OF E PAC BASIN 
BEFORE LOW PRES SHIFTS NE FOLLOWING SHORT WAVE ALOFT. 

BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 128W PRODUCE AREA OF 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE N OF 22N FROM 139W-143W SUPPORTING CONVECTION 
ALONG COLD FRONT.  ELSEWHERE VERY DRY ENVIRON ALOFT UNDER RIDGE 
ALLOWING ONLY LOW LEVEL STRATIFIED LAYERS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL 
DEVELOPMENT N OF 9N W OF 115W.  

ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF RIDGE...DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO 114W AT EQUATOR WITH RELATIVELY WEAK 80 KT 
JET RUNNING NE FROM ITS BASE ADVECTING THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT 
MOISTURE THERE WAS IN TROPICAL E PAC THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO  
INTO SE TEXAS.   

ON THE SURFACE...S WINDS INCREASE N OF 24N W OF 135W AS STRONG 
COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE ENTERS E PAC.  GALE FORCE WIND 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST LESS THAN 48 HRS AS COLD FRONT LOSES 
ITS PUNCH WHEN UPPER SUPPORTS SHIFT NE.  APPROACHING NW SWELLS 
MIGHT BE LARGER THAN NWW3 SOLUTION AS LOW PRES CONTINUES TO 
INTENSIFY...SO WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN FORECAST. 

E PAC SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTER 1025 MB AT 32N124W CONTINUE 
PRODUCING NE TRADES FROM 6N TO 20N W OF 110W.  STRONG WINDS AND 
MERGING NW AND NE SWELLS W OF 120W MIGHT PRODUCE CONFUSED SEAS 
FOR MARINERS IN AREA.   

BRISK NW WIND ALONG GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE 
WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS.

HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND EXPECTED TO FORCE STRONG N 
WIND ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC LASTING LESS THAN 48 HRS AS 
RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES E INTO ATLC. 

CARIBBEAN NE TRADES SPILL OVER INTO GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND LATER 
ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA AS RIDGE MOVES INTO ATLC TIGHTENING 
GRADIENT ACROSS CARIBBEAN. 

$$
WALLY BARNES