000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG ALONG 3N77W 8N107W 5N123W 6N136W 6N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N78W 3N84W 3N86W AND 7N115W. 

OTHER MODERATE CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 11N109W AND OFF MEXICAN 
COAST NEAR 19N106W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 114W CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY 
EWD. A FAIRLY STRONG NLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPLY COLD AIR 
TO THE TROUGH KEEPS IT MOVING AND OPEN. A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE 
CONTINUES OVER THE W CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 130W. A 
DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH LIES JUST W OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO 
LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION. A STRONG JET 
SEGMENT LIES JUST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 147W AND 
ACCELERATES NWD HELPING BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 135W. ON THE 
SURFACE TONIGHT SLY WINDS ARE INCREASING N OF 24N W OF 135W AS A 
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE 
EVIDENT IN QUIKSCAT AND SSMI IMAGERY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE CENTER 
1025 MB WAS LOCATED NEAR 32N124W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NE 
TRADES 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 6N AND 20N W OF 110W ACCORDING TO 
SSMI AND QUIKSCAT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL FOR 
06Z. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST NWLY 15 KT. GAP WINDS MOSTLY 
LIGHT.

LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE A SLOW TRECK EWD 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. ON THE SURFACE 
LATER DAY 1 A GALE CONDITION DEVELOPS N OF 23N W OF 136W AHEAD 
OF THE COLD FRONT JUST W OF THE REGION. NW SWELL WILL ALSO 
INCREASE WITH COMBINED SEAS RISING 10 TO 15 FT. LITTLE CHANGE TO 
THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND NE TRADES. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
REMAIN LIGHT N TO NE. SOME INCREASE IN N TO NE WINDS THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
ALSO NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT W OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR 
OUT TO 90W. 

FOR DAY 2 THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOWS SIGNS OF CUTTING OFF JUST S 
OF LOWER BAJA. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN TROUGH 
OVER THE CONUS AND LITTLE BY LITTLE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS 
WORKED IT'S WAY INLAND OVER SRN CA CUTTING OFF WHATS LEFT OF THE 
COLD AIR AVAILABLE TO THE SHORTWAVE. FURTHER W IT'S A DIFFERENT 
STORY WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED W OF 
130W N OF 20N. THIS WILL SUPPLY ENERGY FOR STRONG CYCLOGENESIS 
JUST N OF THE REGION DAY 2. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A 996 MB LOW 
DEVELOPS AND MOVES NE BRUSHING THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE 
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING E TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AS IT 
MOVES EWD. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT 
WITH COMBINED SEAS RISING 15 TO 20 FT WITH NWLY SWELL. THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND NE TRADES DIMINISH TO 20 KT S 
OF 20N AND W OF 110W. BAJA WINDS REMAIN LIGHT BUT WINDS THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO 25 KT AND GAP WINDS W OF 
NICARAGUA/EL SALVADOR AS WELL AS S OF PANAMA SHOULD BE 20 KT. 

$$
RRG