000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030358
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG ALONG 2N79W 6N95WW 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 15 NM 1N79W AND ONE CLUSTER AT 6N115W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH SPLITS N AMERICA DIAGONALLY FROM NE CANADA TO 
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE EXTENDING 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N106W 20N115W TO A BASE AT 
6N119W. AN EMBEDDED CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 21N114W. THE W PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITH 
ITS AXIS ALONG 20N141W TO BEYOND 32N134W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS 
SPILLING ACROSS THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION N OF 27N W OF 126W. 
OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 115W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 7N91W WITH A RIDGE W 
TO NEAR 5N109W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED A FEW CELLS NEAR 
6N115W AND 10N115W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE STILL SPREADING NE 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 14N108W 25N96W TO BEYOND 
28N77W. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 34N125W RIDGES SE TO 
NEAR 15N104W AND RIDGES SW TO NEAR 22N140W. A SURFACE FRONT 
APPROACHING THE NW OF PORTION THE AREA WITH THE GRADIENT 
SUPPORTING SLY WINDS THAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 
ON SAT THEN WEAKEN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE 
SUN. 

ELY 20 KT GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE 
PAPAGAYO. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT SAT AND 20-30 KT IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION SUN. NW WINDS 20-25 KT ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT IN NORTHERN SEA OF 
CORTEZ.

$$
NELSON