000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N77W 6N100W 5N120W 4N140W. A CLUSTER OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 15 NM OF 1N81W.     
...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH SPLITS N AMERICA DIAGONALLY FROM NE CANADA TO 
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE EXTENDING 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N107W 20N117W 8N122W. AN 
EMBEDDED CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 23N113W. THE W PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS 
ALONG 20N142W TO BEYOND 32N135W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPILLING 
ACROSS THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION N OF 27N W OF 127W. OTHERWISE 
DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 115W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 8N91W WITH A RIDGE W 
TO NEAR 5N109W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED A FEW CELLS NEAR 
6N116W AND 10N115W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE STILL SPREADING NE 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N110W 22N102W TO BEYOND 
27N82W. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS A 1025 MB SFC HIGH PRES NEAR 34N125W RIDGES SE 
TO NEAR 13N105W AND RIDGES SW TO NEAR 20N141W. A SURFACE FRONT 
IS STALLING JUST W OF THE AREA WITH THE GRADIENT SUPPORTING SLY 
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION. 

GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE PAPAGAYO 
AND TEHUANTEPEC REGIONS INTO TOMORROW. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER 
SURGE THROUGH THE GAPS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. 

$$
NELSON