000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021624
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1605 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N77W 6N100W 5N115W 4N140W. VERY LITTLE DEEP 
CONVECTION NOTED OUTSIDE OF THE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 78W-81W. 
    
...DISCUSSION...

1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 36N125W CONTINUES TO CONTROL MUCH 
OF THE WEATHER OVER THE EPAC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONTINUES TO 
PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ON ITS SRN PERIPHERY...MAINLY 
FROM 5N-20N W OF 115W. THIS HIGH TO SHIFT E/NE THROUGH SAT AHEAD 
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. 
ASSOCIATED GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PREFRONTAL S/SE 
WINDS...AS NAM/GFS/UKMET ARE ALL SUGGESTING 25-40 KT STARTING 
AROUND 12Z TOMORROW AND PERSISTING THROUGH 48 HOURS. HAVE LEANED 
MORE TOWARDS UKMET WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE THIS PACKAGE AS IT SEEMED 
BEST ALIGNED WITH 0500 UTC JASON ALTIMETER PASS OVER NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA. 

GAP WINDS ARE NOT AN ISSUE PRESENTLY BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 
20-25 KT IN THE PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC REGIONS INTO TOMORROW. 
MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER SURGE THROUGH THE GAPS EARLY TO MID 
NEXT WEEK. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE 
AREA W OF 125W...AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH N OF HAWAII. ANOTHER 
UPPER TROUGH IS EXTENDING S FROM CENTRAL BAJA ALONG 25N115W 
6N120W. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS 
TROUGH...N OF 10N BETWEEN 100W-115W AND THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO. 
UPPER RIDGING WITH DRY AIR DOMINATES E OF 100W.  

$$
WILLIS