000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020941
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N77W 6N100W 5N115W 4N129W 4N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 3N78W 4N113W AND 6N112W. 
    
...DISCUSSION...

ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALONG 120W BEGINNING TO TURN EWD 
TONIGHT WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING S ALONG THE SRN CA 
COAST. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE PART OF A STRONG LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER 
THE WRN CONUS. A MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 135W CONTINUES TO BUILD 
NWD TONIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EWD W OF 140N. 
ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE CENTER 1022 MB WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 30N129W AND WAS PRODUCING NE TRADES 20 TO 25 KT 
BETWEEN 6N AND 20N W OF 120W ACCORDING TO SSMI IMAGERY. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST WERE NWLY 15 TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI AND 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL 06Z FORECAST. SLY WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT WERE EVIDENT N OF 25N W OF 137W AS A COLD FRONT MOVES 
SLOWLY WWD TO THE W OF THE REGION. GAP WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT.

FOR LATER DAY 1 SHORTWAVES MERGE OFF THE BAJA COAST BEFORE 
SWINGING EWD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES 
MOVING SLOWLY EWD TO NEAR 130W. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE 
FALLING SLOWLY W OF 140W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE PACIFIC 
RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE AND TRADES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. SLY 
WINDS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE W OF 135W WITH NW SWELL 9 TO 12 FT. 
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO ALONG 110W 
PARTIALLY CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN NWLY FLOW IN THE LARGE TROUGH 
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES E TO ALONG 
126W WHILE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE FALLING N OF 20N W OF 
130W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE CENTER WILL MOVE NE 
TO NEAR 31N123W WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NE TRADES. N OF 20N W 
OF 130W WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE 25 TO 30 KT WITH WINDS 
APPROACHING GALE FORCE BY LATE DAY 2 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. NW 
SWELL CONTINUES INCREASING IN THIS AREA 12 TO 15 FT N OF 25N W 
OF 137W.  WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT N AND NE. 
WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC INCREASE SOME TO 15 TO 20 KT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. GAP WINDS INCREASE W 
OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR AS HIGH PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE 
GRADIENT OVER THE CARIB.

$$
RRG