000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020422
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N78W 4N100W 5N110W 4N120W 3N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. 
    
...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
DOMINANT FEATURE IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE
REGION THROUGH 32N118W AND EXTENDS SSW THROUGH 22N119W TO 
4N120W. IT IS MOVING EWD 20 KT. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH 
SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT A BROAD TROUGH N OF 13N E 
OF 128W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST STRETCHES NEWD FROM 14123W 
TO 19N114W TO ACROSS NW MEXICO AT 24N107W...AND CONTINUES NEWD 
ACROSS SRN TEXAS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS 
OF 115-130 KT OVER NRN MEXICO. FURTHER W...MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING IS AMPLIFYING ALONG 137W AND N OF 17N IN RESPONSE TO 
ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH WELL NW OF THE AREA. 

E OF 110W...
LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC E OF 110W WITH A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL SWLY WINDS OVER THE PACIFIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 100W-110W 
EXTENDING EWD OVER MEXICO INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE 
WINDS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR ADVECTING DEEP TROPICAL MID AND 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO MUCH OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 29N130W WITH ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH 25N121W TO 19N108W. RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT FROM 5N TO 15N W OF 115W. NLY
WINDS OF 20 KT ARE BEEN OBSERVED FROM NEAR THE SRN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA S TO 12N BETWEEN 105W-115W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WWD ARE SEEN FROM 
15N-28N E OF 130W. SIMILAR CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
MOVING NWD ARE VISIBLE N OF 18N W OF 130W.

GAP WINDS...
GAP WINDS REMAIN QUITE LIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE 
AGAIN TO 20 KT OVER THE PAPAGAYO IN ABOUT 36 HRS...THEN FURTHER 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN 48 HRS.

$$
AGUIRRE